A “new revolution in body building” is sweeping the automotive industry. After Tesla deployed the integrated die-casting technology as a standard process, many OEMs around the world followed up the layout of the integrated die-casting technology. According to estimates, the domestic integrated die casting market space is expected to reach 27.2 billion by 2025, and the CAGR from 2022 to 2025 will reach 221%.
In the recent conference call with experts from the Financial Associated Press Bee.com, senior experts in automotive integrated die-casting conducted a systematic interpretation on the theme of “opportunities and development of integrated die-casting in the automotive industry”. Combining the upstream supply and output of automotive die-casting products and the comprehensive capability of producing integrated die-casting parts at home and abroad, the experts at the meeting believed that the demand for integrated die-casting will further expand in the future. If only the production of the rear bottom plate is considered, it is estimated that the demand for 6000T-8000T die-casting machines in 2025 to thirty or forty.
The demand for integrated die casting will continue to expand
The one-piece die-cast body is an upgrade of lightweight technology, replacing many of the previous steel body structures and chassis parts. Experts at the meeting said that the current application of die-casting technology in the automotive industry mainly focuses on the rear floor, front floor, mid-floor and doors.
According to Zheshang Securities, in terms of bicycle value, with the technological upgrade of integrated die-casting, the application range of body integration will expand from the current rear seat panel to the front body, chassis battery tray, and door. The corresponding bicycle ASP is expected to increase from 2200 Yuan increased to 14,400 yuan.
Experts at the meeting pointed out that at present, only Tesla has truly achieved mass production in integrated die-casting. According to its understanding, Tesla spent a long time in preliminary research and development and debugging tests, and did not start production until February 2021. The pass rate has increased from 20%, and has now reached 90%, which can stably produce qualified products. The entire die casting industry sets a good benchmark.
At present, only three domestic enterprises have realized the supply of integrated die-casting bottom plates, namely Wencan (603348.SH), Top Group (601689.SH) and Guangdong Hongtu (002101.SZ).
A reporter from the Financial Associated Press was informed that a 6000T die-casting equipment of Wencan Co., Ltd. completed the first half-piece rear floor trial production in November 2021, and the trial-produced products were installed and rolled off the BIW in Weilai. In February 2022, Top Group officially launched mass production of the integrated super-large die-casting body rear cabin developed for Human Express based on a 7,200-ton giant die-casting machine. Guangdong Hongtu will make a prototype for the rear chassis of Xiaopeng Motors in January 2022.
Experts at the meeting pointed out that the above three products are all prototypes and have not been mass-produced.
In addition, in December 2021, the integrated battery pack produced by Ningbo Haiwei’s 6600T die-casting unit rolled off the production line. The product has a length of 1400mm, a width of 900mm, a height of 0mm and a weight of about 32kg.
In terms of the future development space of integrated die-casting, experts have calculated the future demand for 6000T-8000T die-casting machines. By 2025, the output of new energy vehicles is expected to be 7-8 million units, of which about 60% can use integrated die-casting , and the production capacity of a die-casting machine is generally 8000-10000 units/month.
Experts at the meeting said, “It is conservatively estimated that if only the rear bottom plate is produced, the demand for die-casting machines in 2025 will be about thirty or forty sets; if both front and rear bottom plates are produced, the demand will be about sixty or seventy.”
Regarding the reason for producing the rear soleplate instead of the front soleplate, the experts at the meeting explained that the fundamental reason is that the production of the front soleplate is slightly more difficult than the production of the rear soleplate. As for the mid-sole plate and battery pack, the die-casting tonnage required for its production is larger, about 8000T-9000T, which will be developed with the advancement of CTC technology and CTB technology, rather than by the existing technology. The slowest, and it is predicted that mass production will not be achieved by 2025.
Experts at the meeting said, “At present, the 12000T die-casting machine can be seen in the market, and the basic design of the 15000T die-casting machine has been completed. In the next five to ten years, the 18000T-20000T die-casting machine will also come out.”
The comprehensive ability of integrated die-casting is constantly improving
The core advantage of automotive integrated die casting is low cost, high production efficiency, less initial investment, and a short production cycle. Another advantage is that it is lightweight, and the integrated die-casting of automobiles has little impact on the environment and low energy consumption.
Experts at the meeting explained that taking a Tesla backplane as an example, one die-casting part can replace the combination of 70 or more small die-casting parts, which can reduce the weight by about 20% and prolong the cruising range.
One of the core equipment of integrated die-casting production is die-casting machine. At present, there are 6 domestic and foreign enterprises capable of producing die-casting machines, and there are three domestic companies, namely LK, Haitian Metal and Yizumi. Among them, Lijin is the supplier of Tesla’s die-casting machines. At present, Tesla has a total of five 6000T Lijin die-casting machines that have been put into mass production. Yizumi held a signing ceremony with FAW Foundry on May 26, and reached a strategic cooperation for the production of 7000T and 9000T ultra-large die-casting machines for the bottom plate.
The three international die-casting machine manufacturers are Bühler, Idra and Italpresse. Buhler die-casting machine is the most well-known brand in the die-casting industry, with high industry recognition, good machine performance and advanced technology, but the price is 1.5-1.8 times that of domestic brands; Idra die-casting machines are supplied to Tesla factories in the United States and Tesla in Europe Pull factory, the manufacturer was wholly acquired by LK Group; Italpresse has 6000T-9000T die-casting machines.
Another core equipment of integrated die-casting production is the die-casting mold. Experts at the meeting pointed out, “At present, three manufacturers of Guangdong Cavity Mould Factory, Ningbo Zhenzhi and Ningbo Severda have made batches of molds for Tesla, and they clearly have mold production capacity.”
Heat-free aluminum alloy is the core material of integrated die-casting. According to the experts at the meeting, Tesla specially hired Apple’s aluminum alloy experts to conduct related research and development, and developed a high-strength alloy formula that does not require coating and treatment. The heat-free aluminum alloy material independently developed by Guangdong Hongtu has obtained the national authorized invention patent , Wencan Co., Ltd., Lizhong, and Shanghai Jiaotong University all claimed to have heat-free materials. (Article source: Financial Associated Press)