New variety | 50 questions about cast aluminum alloy futures and options (II): Overview of spot market for cast aluminum alloy

New variety | 50 questions about cast aluminum alloy futures and options (II): Overview of spot market for cast aluminum alloy

(Reprinted from: Green Dahua Futures News)

   09.

  What is the production of cast aluminum alloy in my country?

  With the vigorous development of my country's automobile, new energy and infrastructure fields, the demand for cast aluminum alloys has increased significantly, driving supply growth. According to data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the average annual compound growth rate of my country's cast aluminum alloy production capacity and output has been 6.83% and 5.37% respectively since 2012. In 2024, my country's cast aluminum alloy production capacity was about 13 million tons, an increase of 8.33% year-on-year; the output was about 6.2 million tons, an increase of 6.90% year-on-year..

   10.

   Where are the main distribution areas of cast aluminum alloy production in my country?

my country's cast aluminum alloy production capacity is mainly distributed in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Chongqing, Zhejiang and other regions, accounting for 16.93%, 15.87%, 11.04%, 8.18% and 6.79% respectively, and the total production capacity accounts for about 58.81% of the total production capacity in the country.

Figure 1 The proportion of cast aluminum alloy production capacity in provinces across the country

   11.

   What is the concentration of cast aluminum alloy production in my country?

  my country's cast aluminum alloy production enterprises are mainly private and foreign-funded (joint ventures) enterprises, with a high degree of marketization and low market concentration. According to the group calculation, the market share of the top five enterprises (hereinafter referred to as CR5) accounts for about 30%, and the market share of the top ten enterprises (hereinafter referred to as CR10) accounts for about 44%..

   12.

  Where is the main distribution of the consumer areas of cast aluminum alloy in my country?

my country's cast aluminum alloy consumption is mainly distributed in developed regions such as East China, South China, Sichuan and Chongqing. Among them, the consumption in Zhejiang, Guangdong and Jiangsu accounted for 29.4%, 29.1% and 15% respectively, accounting for a total of 73.5%. The proportion of cast aluminum alloy consumption in various provinces in my country is shown in the figure below.

Figure 2 The proportion of cast aluminum alloy consumption in various provinces in my country

Source: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Shanghai Steel Union, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network

   13.

   What is the logistics flow in my country's casting aluminum alloy industry?

  The main export provinces of cast aluminum alloy in my country are Jiangxi, Anhui, Hunan, Hebei, Fujian and other places, and the main import provinces are Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Hubei and other places. byADC12As an example, the logistics flow direction is shown in the figure below. Cast aluminum alloys produced locally in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Chongqing are mainly used for consumption within the province or surrounding areas.

Figure 3 my country's ADC12 logistics flow direction

Description: Green represents the output province; blue represents the input province; green arrow represents the exit flow direction.

Source of data: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association

   14.

   What is the import and export of cast aluminum alloys in my country?

In terms of imports, the main importers of cast aluminum alloys in my country are Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, the Russian Federation, etc. The total import volume of regions above 2024 accounts for nearly 70% of the total import volume; the main exporters of my country's cast aluminum alloys are Japan, South Korea, Mexico, the United States, etc., and the total export volume of regions above 2024 accounts for more than 80% of the total export volume.

   15.

   What are the factors that affect the price of cast aluminum alloys?

The price of cast aluminum alloys is affected by a variety of factors, including market supply and demand, raw material costs, industry policies, etc. Among them, scrap aluminum accounts for the largest proportion of the cost composition of cast aluminum alloys, and its price is the key factor affecting the price of cast aluminum alloys.

   16.

  What is the supply of main raw materials for cast aluminum alloys?

At present, my country's scrap aluminum sources have formed a pattern of “domestic-oriented and imported supplementary”, of which domestic supply accounts for more than 80%. According to data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, my country recovered 8.9 million tons of scrap aluminum in 2024; according to data from the General Administration of Customs, my country's imported scrap aluminum (recycled cast aluminum alloy raw materials) in 2024 was about 1.78 million tons (physical amount).

  In the future, as domestic scrap aluminum recycling enters an accelerated release cycle and the domestic circular economy system is gradually improved, the supply of raw materials for cast aluminum alloys will gradually increase..

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Source: Release of the Shanghai Futures Exchange

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