(Source: Fubao Nonferrous Metals)
Key tips:This week, the prices of scrap aluminum are mostly running steadily, and the market circulation source is still insufficient. The manufacturers replenish the warehouse according to their own holiday arrangements. It is expected that the price of scrap aluminum will remain stable in the next period, and the possibility of an increase cannot be ruled out. There are three main reasons: First, next week, the National Day holiday is facing a short National Day holiday, and aluminum companies in many places in East China and Southwest have holiday arrangements for National Day. The stocking sentiment at the beginning of the week is still there, which supports the price; Second, the market circulation source remains tight, and the holders are still willing to support prices; Third, the world's second largest Indonesian copper mine has risen sharply due to mudslide production suspension, and coupled with the firm opposition to the “internal-roll” competition topic of the copper smelting industry has resurfaced. Under the expectation of strong copper prices, it is expected to have a certain driving effect on aluminum prices.
1. Analysis of the domestic recycled aluminum composite market
1. Market situation of recycled aluminum alloy
During the period, the fluctuation range of A00 aluminum ingots narrowed. As of September 25, the price of Fubao spot A00 aluminum was between 20750 and 20790 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from September 18. The market price of cast aluminum alloys fell first and then rose during the period. As of September 25, the price of Fubao spot ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in 20200 was 200 yuan/ton on September 18. At present, the mainstream price of non-delivery products ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in East China is between 20200-20400 yuan/ton, and the stable month-on-month on September 18. The mainstream price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the southwest region is 20300-20500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ADC12 in South China is 20200-20500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton on September 18. The higher the price of delivery products is 100-200 yuan/ton.
The main contracts for cast aluminum alloy futures fell during the period and rebounded. The spot market performance fell steadily. With the price drop, aluminum companies reported that the destocking situation during the period is still acceptable. However, due to the imbalance of market supply and demand, traders mainly shipped during the period, the market supply increased, and enterprises weakened their ability to control product prices, and the actual market transaction price was significantly lower. The National Day holiday is coming soon, and downstream companies may stock up in the next period, which is expected to drive transactions in some markets. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to stop falling and stabilize.
2. Raw material scrap aluminum market situation
According to data from Fubao Nonferrous Network, the price of scrap aluminum has been mixed during the period. Due to different sources of goods, the prices of scrap aluminum have regional differences. The subdivided varieties are as follows:
In terms of bright aluminum wires, as of September 25, the prices of bright aluminum wires in mainstream areas were concentrated between 18,300-18,800 yuan/ton, with little room for rise and fall compared with September 18; the operating range of A00 aluminum ingots in this period was 20,660-20,830 yuan/ton, fluctuating narrowly during the period, and the price discount of bright aluminum wires has generally not been adjusted, and it is still mostly concentrated at 88-90.5% off; the markets in Hebei and Henan have increased against the trend due to the replenishment of inventory before the festival.
In terms of cans, as of September 25, the price of cans in mainstream areas was concentrated between 15,200-15,900 yuan/ton, a steady increase from September 18, with an increase of 0-100 yuan/ton. The shipment efforts of holders have weakened, the market circulation source has tightened, and the supply of cans has been tightened. Aluminum companies in many places have not adjusted the price of cans due to insufficient profits. However, some aluminum companies in Jiangxi and Fujian have also raised the receipt price against the trend due to insufficient raw materials and the replenishment of warehouses before the festival. During the period, the prices of cans have been relatively chaotic due to regional demand differences and variety problems.
In terms of raw aluminum, as of September 25, the price of auto-generated aluminum in mainstream areas was concentrated between 15,300-16,200 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared with September 18. The price of raw aluminum fell by 100 yuan during the period, and then returned to the decline. The overall price remained stable compared with the previous period, and the price was at a low level in the past two weeks. The holders were not willing to ship or shipped with a price. Aluminum companies generally reported that there was insufficient arrival and the transaction was not as good as the previous period. It is understood that aluminum companies in many places in East China and Southwest have holiday arrangements for the National Day, and the pre-holiday stocking sentiment is still there. It is expected that the price of raw aluminum will still be supported and may still perform resistant to declines next week.
2. ADC12 cost and profit analysis
1. Domestic ADC12 cost proportion
The center of gravity of electrolytic aluminum prices in this period first declined and then rose. The overall center of gravity moved slightly down. After the digestion of overseas policies, the macro market returned to balance. The aluminum price returned to fundamentals. The overall performance of aluminum alloy futures during the period was slightly resistant to declines, and it rose to above 20,400 during the session. In terms of spot market, the actual transaction price of cast aluminum alloys in the current period was far lower than the futures level, and the theoretical basis has reached -400 yuan/ton; in terms of cost distribution, the decline in scrap aluminum during the period also expanded, and the total proportion fell slightly to 91.1%. In terms of auxiliary material investment, the silicon price fluctuated slightly during the period, with limited volatility.
2. Production cost of ADC12 in East China and South China
According to Fubao Nonferrous Metals data, as of September 25, 2025, the cost of ADC12 in East China was 19,946 yuan/ton, down 44.5 yuan/ton compared with the cost value on September 18, 2025; the cost of ADC12 in South China was 20,283 yuan/ton, which was the same as the cost value on September 11, 2025.
The price trend of scrap aluminum in this period is basically mainly suppressed first and then rose. Most of the procurement prices of mainstream enterprises have been lowered. However, due to the tight order orders in some regions, the pressure of replenishing raw materials before the holiday is high, and the pressure to replenish raw materials before the holiday is high, and there is a counter-trend rise. From the perspective of regional differences, the volatility in the South China region is relatively narrow. Due to the influence of extreme weather, transportation in the region is mostly stagnant in the first half of the week, and it is difficult for enterprises to replenish warehouses. Traders are most of the subsequent price support, and the costs remain high. In the East China market, small and medium-sized aluminum enterprises have one order before the holiday, and the willingness to replenish raw materials is not strong, and the price volatility is relatively large.
3. China's recycled aluminum alloy ingot profit monitoring
According to statistics from Fubao Nonferrous Metals, as of September 25, 2025, the latest domestic cast aluminum alloy ingot profit was -32.2 yuan/ton, a sharp decline of 200 yuan/ton from the profit value on September 18; Fubao Information ADC12 spot guide price was 20,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the price on September 18; the crushed raw aluminum price index recorded 17,082, a 25 yuan/ton from the price on September 18.
The spot transaction of cast aluminum alloy in this period is poor. According to market feedback, the transaction price continues to weaken. Although the futures price is obvious, the demand feedback in the peak season is not obvious. Downstream orders are stable and weak, while market traders have accumulated a large inventory of alloy ingots. With the continuous accumulation of social warehouses, the transaction price of aluminum alloy has significantly weakened during the current period. Considering that the market still has certain stocking demand in the last week before the festival, it is expected that the spot price of aluminum alloy will continue to weaken before the festival. It may be mainly stable; its core elements are: 1. Most cast aluminum alloy companies have stocked up in advance before the holiday, and the raw material pressure of most companies has eased, and supply and demand may be mainly slight oversupply; 2. The spot inventory of cast aluminum alloys is still large, and it is continuously accumulated. In addition, the liquidity of non-delivery products is much higher than that of delivery products, which may lead to a weakening of the premium of delivery products in the future; 3. There are few macro-oriented guidance, and it is expected that domestic and foreign policy stimulus will weaken, and the price of aluminum alloys will stabilize.
3. Market outlook for recycled aluminum alloy ingots next week
The macro news is still relatively mild and the guidance on goods is limited. In terms of copper, the free port company's mining area in Glasberg block in Indonesia was suspended after an accident, which will affect the supply of copper products. Copper is significantly upward, and the market will further drive Nonferrous metals in the future. The fundamental supply side is running smoothly, with more aluminum ingots arriving, and social inventory is reduced. The demand side continues regional differences. The central area of China performed well, with relatively positive goods reception, and other regions performed averagely. The start of construction in major downstream areas increased slightly month-on-month, with average year-on-year performance. The demand in the terminal area improved, and the regional differences in spot discounts were obvious. Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable next week.
In terms of the recycled market, as of September 25, the spot guide price of Fubao Information ADC12 was 20,200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week. Looking forward to next week, the reference volatility range of cast aluminum alloy futures prices is 20,300-20,600 yuan/ton, and the spot price of aluminum alloy is 20,200-20,300 yuan/ton.