(Source: Fubao Nonferrous Metals)
Key tips:This week, scrap aluminum fell by 100-200 yuan/ton. The market circulation source was still acceptable at the beginning of the week, but the price was relatively high. In the later period, as the price fell, the shipments of holders decreased, and some holders chose to hold goods, and the market circulation source was significantly tightened.It is expected that the price of scrap aluminum will fall slightly next week; there are three main reasons: First, the macro positive factors have been digested in advance, and the market lacks positive stimulus after the interest rate cut boots are implemented; Second, in terms of fundamentals, although it is in the traditional peak season, orders for small and medium-sized aluminum companies are still insufficient, some companies are selling at a lower price, and the ADC12 discount has expanded; Third, there is no further progress in the abolition of local tax rebates policy, and enterprises are still waiting and watching. Overall, it is expected that scrap aluminum prices will fall slightly next week.
1. Analysis of the domestic recycled aluminum composite market
1. Market situation of recycled aluminum alloy
During the period, the price of A00 aluminum ingots rose first and then fell. As of September 18, the price of Fubao spot A00 aluminum was between 20,760 and 20,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20,780 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from September 11. The market price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuates frequently during the period, with a sharp increase of 200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the period and a decline in the later period. As of September 18, the price of Fubao spot ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots was 20,400, up 100 yuan/ton from September 11 month on September 11; the current mainstream price of non-delivery products ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in East China is between 20,200-20,400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the southwest region is 20,300-20,500 yuan/ton, down 50-100 yuan/ton from September 11 month on September 11; the price of delivery products is 100-20,000 yuan/ton, and the market price is slightly chaotic, with differences in regional rise and fall.
During the period, the main contract for cast aluminum alloy futures rose to 20,675 yuan/ton and then fell, resulting in a “four consecutive negatives”; the spot market price adjustments were also frequent, and the difference in orders of enterprises and attitudes towards the future market were different, the market prices in the period were chaotic. Small and medium-sized aluminum companies in many places such as Southwest and East China slowed down the destocking speed due to high product prices in the early stage, and prices fell in the later stage. Downstream die-casting companies and traders were more enthusiastic about entering the market, and inquiry increased; but compared with cast aluminum alloy companies, there were differences in corporate attitudes. Some companies lowered their inventory and lowered their product prices, but some companies also sold their products with high raw material prices, considering profit issues. In addition, there are also large differences in orders between enterprises. In the peak season, orders of large manufacturers have increased steadily and in a small and medium-sized manner, but the increase in small and medium-sized enterprises is not obvious, and some enterprises even sell at a price with insufficient orders.
2. Raw material scrap aluminum market situation
According to data from Fubao Nonferrous Network, the price of scrap aluminum fell by more than 100 yuan during the period, and the overall market inquiry is relatively hot. The subdivided varieties are as follows:
In terms of bright aluminum wires, as of September 18, the prices of bright aluminum wires in mainstream areas were concentrated between 18,300-18,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from September 11; the operating range of A00 aluminum ingots in this period was 20,760-21,040 yuan/ton, and the price rose and fell during the period due to the news of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. At the beginning of the period, because A00 aluminum ingots broke through the 21,000 mark, and enterprises were not willing to chase the rise, and the price of bright aluminum wires was reduced by 0.5-1 discount point. In the later period, the price fell and the discount recovered. Currently, it is mostly concentrated at 88-90.5% off; holders continue to maintain their price-up shipment attitude, the source of circulation is tight, the inquiry is increasing, and the market activity is increased.
In terms of cans, as of September 18, the price of cans in mainstream areas was concentrated between 15,200-15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from September 11. Price adjustments are relatively frequent during the period, but when the holders support the price, the market circulation source is tight, and the prices are generally higher than the manufacturer's quotation, and the transaction is slightly stalemate.
In terms of raw aluminum, as of September 18, the prices of auto-generated aluminum in mainstream areas were concentrated between 15,300-16,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from September 11. At the beginning of the period, the price of raw aluminum was relatively high, and the transaction was slightly stalemate. For manufacturers, there was a lack of suitable price resources, and some companies had some control over the daily arrival volume. As the prices in the later period fell, the willingness of holders to support prices fell, and the arrival volume of aluminum companies improved compared with the previous period; it is understood that the overall supply of goods in the market is still tight, and the insufficient replenishment of imported materials in Guangdong may limit the decline in the later period.
2. ADC12 cost and profit analysis
1. Domestic ADC12 cost proportion
The center of gravity of the spot price of electrolytic aluminum in this period has shifted downward, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has basically met expectations, and the macroscopic digestion has rapidly digested, and the weakening of the Shanghai aluminum market has dragged downward simultaneously, falling below the 20,400 mark during the period; in terms of spot, the current cast aluminum alloy spot market has greatly differentiated, the mainstream market has risen first and then declined, and it has basically remained stable during the period; in terms of cost distribution, the total proportion of scrap aluminum usage costs continued to move upward during the period, and the prices of raw materials are firm in the absence of stocks, and the prices of mature aluminum in some areas have been lowered, but good raw aluminum materials have basically remained at a high level; in other items, labor costs have been slightly lowered.
2. Production cost of ADC12 in East China and South China
According to Fubao Nonferrous Metals data, as of September 18, 2025, the cost of ADC12 in East China was 19,990.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.5 yuan/ton compared with the cost value on September 11, 2025; the cost of ADC12 in South China was 20,283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 117 yuan/ton compared with the cost value on September 11, 2025.
Most of the scrap aluminum prices in this period fell, and some material types in some regions rose against the trend due to a large supply gap. In addition, according to research on aluminum companies and traders in major regions, the market supply situation continued to be tight in mid-September. However, due to the sluggish start-up, aluminum companies have not been willing to purchase and restock, and the price adjustment is slightly higher than that in East China. From the perspective of price difference, the current price difference between the north and the south has narrowed to around 200 yuan/ton. Even if freight costs are taken into account, there is theoretically a certain amount of room for cross-regional transfers.
3. China's recycled aluminum alloy ingot profit monitoring
According to statistics from Fubao Nonferrous Metals, as of September 18, 2025, the latest domestic cast aluminum alloy ingot profit was 167.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 72.6 yuan/ton from the profit value on September 11; Fubao Information ADC12 spot guide price was 20,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the price on September 11; the crushed raw aluminum price index recorded 17,057, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from the price on September 11.
The spot market of cast aluminum alloy ingots in this period is relatively small, and large aluminum companies are mostly holding goods. The peak season has arrived. Companies give priority to orders for downstream and terminal companies, and trade orders have declined. However, for small and medium-sized aluminum companies, both end performance is weak. After the peak season comes, orders for traditional die-casters are not much boosted, and demand is slightly weak. Given the implementation of macro events and the average demand performance, we expect the spot price of aluminum alloys to weaken next week. The core elements are: 1. The tight balance of supply and demand in the aluminum alloy ingot market may be broken, and the concerns of “not prosperous peak season” may gradually spread. Some companies with goods may gradually sell goods in the future, and the market supply is expected to increase, which may lead to weakening transaction prices; 2. Cost support has declined. In the recent situation of frequent electrolytic aluminum prices, the price of raw and cooked aluminum weakened simultaneously, and the ease of cost pressure may push aluminum companies in different regions to concessions in disguise.
3. Market outlook for recycled aluminum alloy ingots next week
On the macro side, the upper limit of the US federal funds rate target in September was lowered by 25 basis points, which basically meets market expectations. However, Powell's subsequent statement was rather hawkish, and the commodity market reflected certain pressure. After the interest rate cut boots were implemented, the positive support for the previous period was not there, and market sentiment tended to be cautious. The fundamental supply side is running smoothly, the aluminum ingot supply is normal, and social inventory continues to accumulate. The performance on the demand side has improved slightly, aluminum prices continue to pull back, and downstream accepts goods on demand in a timely manner. The demand in the construction profile field is average, the demand in the plate, strip and foil field is mild, and the demand in other fields is also mild. Short-term macro guidance is implemented, and it is expected that aluminum prices will continue to weaken after digestion.
In terms of the recycled market, as of September 18, the spot guide price of Fubao Information ADC12 was 20,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. Looking forward to next week, the reference volatility range of cast aluminum alloy futures prices will be 20,200-20,600 yuan/ton, and the reference 20,200-20,400 yuan/ton.