The application of Tesla’s integrated casting technology is accelerating, and Cybertruck is expected to follow after the Model Y application. New domestic car-making forces and overseas brands such as Volkswagen, Volvo and Mercedes-Benz have followed this technological trend, and integrated casting has become the general trend. According to our calculations, the global penetration rate of integrated casting is expected to reach 30% in 2030. It is conservatively estimated that the value of bicycle accessories is expected to reach 10,000 yuan, and the industry space is more than 240 billion yuan. From the perspective of the industry chain, independent suppliers of parts, equipment and materials have made rapid progress, and the speed of mass production is the world’s leading. We recommend Wencan Co., Ltd., Top Group, Aikedi and Xusheng Co., Ltd. in the parts section, and Guangdong Hongtu and Rongtai Co., Ltd. are recommended to pay attention to; for the equipment side, it is recommended to pay attention to Lijin Technology; in the material section, Lizhong Group is recommended.
Tesla leads, leading brands follow up, the general trend of integrated casting
Tesla proposed the integrated die-casting technology in 2019, creating a precedent for the large-scale high-pressure casting industry; in September 2020, Tesla mass-produced the technology in the rear floor of Model Y, with significant cost and weight reduction effects; 2021 In May of this year, Tesla’s front cabin assembly was successfully developed and applied to the Model Y model in October. According to Tesla’s first-quarter earnings conference call, future Cybertruck models will also use this technology on the rear floor. Under the demonstration effect of Tesla, the new domestic forces NIO, Xiaopeng and Gaohe, as well as the overseas OEMs Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo have all started the preliminary research and development of integrated casting technology, and most of them have determined to promote the production of this technology. Produce. Integrated die-casting technology has become the future trend of the industry.
Parts: Traditional structural parts are upgraded to integrated die-casting, opening up a hundredfold growth space
According to the information released by Tesla, after using the integrated die-casting technology for the rear floor of Model Y, 80 stamping and welding parts of the original plan are integrated into one casting, and 40% cost reduction and 10% weight reduction are achieved. Considering the significant cost and weight reduction effects brought by the integrated die-casting technology, we believe that the penetration of this technology is expected to reach 30% in 2030, and a conservative estimate will drive the global die-casting structural parts industry space to grow from 2.2 billion this year to 246 billion Yuan. Domestic parts suppliers are actively deploying the integrated casting industry, and Wencan equipment implementation progress, project designation, product development and trial production are all at the forefront of the industry; Toppu integrated super-large die-casting rear cabin mass production is off the assembly line; Aikedi plans to purchase 4 6000T+ die-casting machines; Xusheng will introduce several large-scale die-casting islands to Haitian Metal; Cherfeng expects to complete the installation and commissioning of 7 large-scale die-casting equipment by the end of 2022, in addition to non-listed companies Ningbo Haiwei, Ruili Group, Millison Technology also Large-scale equipment has been purchased successively, and the layout of integrated die-casting has been accelerated.
Equipment: LK Technology leads the trend of large-tonnage presses, competitors follow, and the market continues to grow rapidly
The integrated die-casting process has significant advantages in weight reduction and cost reduction. Therefore, after the innovation of the front and rear floor assembly processes, it is expected to further penetrate into other parts of the body-in-white, such as four doors, rear covers, battery boxes and other structural parts. At the same time, the production efficiency of super-large die-casting machines has great potential for improvement, and the production capacity of a single machine is expected to exceed 180,000 pieces/year from 120,000 pieces/year. Therefore, the die-casting machine is expected to become the core car-making equipment under the trend of integrated die-casting technology. In 2020, the market size of my country’s traditional die-casting machines will be around 3 billion yuan. Benefiting from the substitution of aluminum for steel, the overall growth trend will continue, and LK Technology occupies a dominant position in the industry. We estimate that it will take about 10 to 15 years for the penetration rate of integrated die casting in the automotive industry to increase to 90%. It is estimated that in 2030, the total investment in the global body structure die-casting machine system will be about 161.4 billion yuan, and the global die-casting machine and related equipment market will increase from 8.5 billion in 2021 to 71.3 billion yuan.
Material: Heat-free alloy is a necessary material for integrated die-casting, and Chinese enterprises have made independent breakthroughs
The trend of lightweight automobiles promotes the continuous increase in the application ratio of aluminum alloy materials. However, the traditional die-casting process of heat-treated aluminum alloy materials is complicated and the cost is high. Large die-castings are also prone to deformation and shrinkage, resulting in a decrease in product yield. Therefore, the heat-free aluminum alloy material is more suitable for the production of large-scale die castings, which can reduce the welding links of the assembly and reduce costs and increase efficiency. Therefore, the demand for heat-free alloys for accelerated penetration of integrated die-casting is rapidly released. It is estimated that the domestic market size will exceed 14.5 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will be 161% in 4 years. Conservative/neutral/optimistic estimates of the overall market size of heat-free alloys for domestic passenger vehicles in 2030 It is 377/562/66.5 billion yuan. In the process of heat-free alloy development, the main alloy composition ratio and the introduction of trace special elements are the core technical barriers. In addition, the selection of alloy materials, purification treatment, and casting process will also affect the properties of the alloy.
The developers of mainstream high-quality heat-free aluminum alloy materials are still dominated by foreign companies, such as Alcoa’s EZCAST series of die-cast aluminum alloys. However, domestic heat-free aluminum alloy materials have achieved independent research and development, the number of patent applications has exploded, and the performance indicators can meet the requirements of automotive structural parts. For example, the heat-free alloy of Shuaiyichi Group has passed the verification of NIO and is expected to be applied on a large scale; Shanghai Jiaotong University Light Alloy Center is a pioneer in the research and development of heat-free alloys and can provide mature industrial application solutions; Lizhong Group is a manufacturer of new light alloy materials , LDHM-02 heat-free alloy obtained patent certificate.
risk factor
The domestic passenger car market is less than expected; the application of integrated casting technology is less than expected; the research and development of large-tonnage presses is less than expected; the research and development of heat-free alloys is less than expected. (Article source: CITIC Securities)