After the car circle has experienced round after round of stormy waves, a new outlet is blowing, that is, integrated die casting. In the first half of the year, marketing guru Musk promoted his so-called super car factory everywhere. The giant die-casting machine with a length of 19.5 meters, a height of 5.3 meters and a weight of 410 tons has become the highlight of marketing.
With Musk’s existence, there must be Musk’s followers. Domestic Xiaopeng, Volkswagen, and Volvo are all actively betting on the technology of integrated die-casting.
At the same time, capital is like dancing on the tip of a knife, and a little bit of trouble can lead to a big imagination.
In addition to downstream OEMs fascinated by this technology, upstream “shovel sellers” are also running forward. For example, on the day of June 18, when everyone was frantically buying hands in front of the mobile phone screen, the second set of 9000T super-large die-casting machine of Wencan Co., Ltd. (603348) completed trial production in Xiongbang, Nantong, just two months after the first set of equipment. Before that, Top Group (601689) and Human Express jointly announced that the mass production of the first integrated oversized die-casting body rear cabin had rolled off the assembly line.
The most intuitive effect of integrated die-casting is to achieve a weight reduction effect of 15% to 20% of the vehicle and save the production time of auto parts.
But everything has to look at the essence through the glitz of the surface. What kind of magic does the seemingly magical technology of integrated die-casting have that can make OEMs and parts players make arrangements? As an investor, what opportunities do you have to get on the bus?
1. Not only you, but the car should also lose weight
New energy vehicles have already crossed the stage of 0-1, running at high speed on the road of 1-100. One of the requirements that follow is lightweight.
What are the advantages of lightweight? Speaking of data, when the weight of each vehicle is reduced by 10%, the fuel consumption of fuel vehicles can be reduced by 0.3-0.6L per 100 kilometers. Today, lightweighting has become a sweet pastry when oil prices are rising. After the new energy vehicle has a three-electric system, the quality is still higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, and lightweight has become one of the ultimate killers to solve the cruising range.
It turns out that cars also have KPIs for weight loss.
And the light-weight realization path, the easiest to think of is aluminum alloy. More than 3/4 of the aluminum alloy process in automobiles is realized by die casting. Only by starting from die casting can the main contradiction be solved by tracing the source.
Four process comparison of aluminum alloy
The emergence of integrated die casting has greatly improved production efficiency. To make a simple comparison, a large-scale integrated die-casting machine can produce 1,000 castings a day in less than two minutes, while the traditional process of stamping and welding 70 parts to assemble a component takes at least two hours. PK, which is better or worse can be seen with the naked eye.
Comparison of different process efficiencies
2. Die casting is not what you want, you can come if you want
The technical advantages are so significant, don’t the relevant players want to take a share of the pie? Not also. The technical barriers of integrated die-casting exist objectively.
1► Equipment barriers
Die-casting machines are relatively customized products and are also asset-heavy industries. The scale effect brought about by subsequent mass production is needed to amortize the cost of research and development, equipment and molds in the early stage. For example, Tesla’s integrated die-casting machine, Giga Press, is also Tesla’s personal end to work with die-casting machine manufacturer IDRA Group to jointly design software and hardware.
2► Material barriers
Integrated die-casting has higher requirements on materials. Of course, the production of such large parts is a win-win situation and a loss. Heat treatment is an effective way to ensure the good performance of die-casting parts. In order not to be adversely affected by subsequent heat treatment, many players have even begun to develop heat-free aluminum alloy materials by themselves. I can’t beat you, can I bypass you?
3►Customer Authentication Barriers
Friends who know auto parts must know that parts players need strict review and certification to enter the complete vehicle supporting system. OEMs are not vegetable markets, you can come if you want.
Under such a high moat, there are still warriors who dare to face difficulties. But at present, players of integrated die-casting are still in the stage of releasing small production capacity. Players with faster progress include Wencan Co., Ltd., Guangdong Hongtu (002101), etc. For example, Guangdong Hongtu has entered the supporting system of Xiaopeng Motors. Wencan Co., Ltd. and Lizhong Group (300428) have reached a number of cooperation agreements on integrated body structures.
Player layout of integrated die-casting machine
And if it is extended to the upstream of the industry chain, there are also domestic players in upstream materials and molds. According to the research and analysis of the agency, the current penetration rate of integrated die-casting technology in automobiles is about 12%, and the equipment market is close to 10 billion yuan. If the penetration rate increases by 70% in the future, the corresponding market will reach 60 billion yuan. There is still plenty of room for investors to imagine.
Upstream and downstream industrial chain of die casting industry
3. People are not perfect, and so are machines
All-in-one die casting sounds like a once-and-for-all solution, but is it true? Starting with the most critical aspect of cost reduction, the author also asked friends in the industry that the operation of the integrated die-casting machine also requires a number of peripheral equipment such as melting furnaces, spraying equipment, and cooling equipment to cooperate with each other. This shows that The cost of maintaining the operation of the entire die casting system is relatively high.
Sure enough, a CICC report also confirmed this view. When producing 100,000 vehicles that year, if the traditional stamping-welding process is used, the total investment of equipment in the stamping + welding link is about 520 million yuan, all of which use the integrated die-casting process, and the total investment in the corresponding link equipment is 710 million yuan.
I wonder if the cost has dropped?
Therefore, people cannot be deified, and so can new technologies. Only practice is the only criterion for testing truth. When investors have been rushing to this new outlet, the real danger behind them seems to be gradually revealing their hideous appearance.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm without buying and selling.