(Source: Fubao Nonferrous)
1. Overview of the recycled aluminum industry chain in February 2026
Price: As of February 27, the spot aluminum price of Fubao was reported at 23,400 yuan/ton, down 1,260 yuan/ton from January 30; the price of Fubao ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots was 23,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from January 30.
Supply and demand: Some aluminum companies shut down their furnaces before the holiday, and market supply tightened. Although the price of cast aluminum alloys fell, the decline was narrower than that of primary aluminum, showing a certain degree of resilience. After the holiday, downstream die-casting companies resumed work later, and demand recovery was insufficient. Orders from aluminum companies did not improve significantly, and the overall price of cast aluminum alloys maintained a volatile and slightly rising market.
Cost: As of February 27, the cost of ADC12 in East China was 21,556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton, or 1.4%, from the cost value on January 30; the cost of ADC12 in South China was 22,556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116 yuan/ton from the cost value on January 30. The cost price difference between the two places widened to 1,000 yuan/ton.
Profit: As of February 27, the average profit value of domestic cast aluminum alloy ingot companies was reported at 728.3 yuan/ton, which was 203.9 yuan/ton narrower than the market profit margin on January 30. Judging from the market profit curve in February, the inability to keep up with the spot price of cast aluminum alloy ingots and the shortage of raw material supply are the core factors leading to the decline in corporate profits.
2. Analysis of domestic recycled aluminum alloy market
1. Analysis of electrolytic aluminum prices and refined scrap price differences
In February, the national mainstream refined waste price difference showed a gradual narrowing phenomenon; according to statistics from Fubao Nonferrous Network, as of February 27, the refined waste price difference in East China was 2,003 yuan/ton, narrowed by 401 yuan/ton from January 30; the refined waste price difference in southern China was 15 38.8 yuan/ton, a month-on-month narrowing of 741.6 yuan/ton; the price difference of refined waste in North China was 2,217 yuan/ton, a month-on-month narrowing of 936 yuan/ton; the price difference of refined waste in southwest China was 1,329 yuan/ton, a month-on-month narrowing of 933.6 yuan/ton.
During the period, the spot aluminum price of Fubao was in the range of 23130-23780 yuan/ton. In February, the aluminum price fell back from the high level, once falling to the 23,000 mark, and it coincided with the Spring Festival holiday. The price of bright aluminum wire was resistant to the decline due to the lack of supply in the market and the strong support of the holders, and the company's discount for receiving goods was increased. As a result, the price difference of refined waste in this period has narrowed significantly, and even narrowed by nearly a thousand yuan in North China and Southwest China. However, according to Fubao data, the price difference of refined waste in East China, North China and other regions is still above 2,000 yuan/ton. In March, as aluminum companies resume work and demand picks up, it is expected that the price difference of refined waste may further narrow.
2. Market situation of recycled aluminum alloy
In February, domestic cast aluminum alloy ingot prices fell back from highs and fluctuated; as of February 27, the spot price of Fubao ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots was 23,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from January 30; among them, the mainstream price of ADC12 aluminum alloy non-delivery products in East China was between 22,900-23,200 yuan/ton, down from January 30 400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of ADC12 in South China is between 22,900-23,100 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton from January 30; the mainstream price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in southwest China is 23,000-23,200 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton from January 30; the price of delivery products ranges from 100-200 yuan/ton.
The change in bullish sentiment at the beginning of the month caused funds to leave the market. The price of A00 aluminum ingots fell back from highs, with the largest single-day drop of nearly 1,000 yuan. The price of cast aluminum alloys also fell. The price of ADC12 once fell below the 23,000 mark. However, due to the shutdown of some aluminum companies before the holiday and the tightening of market supply, although the price of cast aluminum alloys fell, the decline was narrower than that of primary aluminum. , there is a certain resistance to the decline; after the holiday, downstream die-casting companies resumed work late, demand recovery was insufficient, aluminum companies' orders did not improve significantly, and the overall price of cast aluminum alloys maintained a volatile and slightly rising market; in addition, because February coincides with the Spring Festival holiday, there are differences in company shutdown times and orders, and the room for adjustment of product prices increases, and prices are slightly chaotic. Looking at March, as demand recovers, prices are expected to gain some support or show steady growth.
3. Raw material scrap aluminum market situation
In February, the price of scrap aluminum fell back, with the decline ranging from 200-600 yuan/ton. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, market trading volume declined, prices were slightly chaotic, and the quotation range widened; details are as follows:
In terms of bright aluminum wire, as of February 27, the price of bright aluminum wire in mainstream areas across the country was concentrated between 19,700-20,600 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 200-500 yuan/ton from January 30. During the period, the price of A00 aluminum ingots fell back from the high level, and bright aluminum wire followed the adjustment. However, when the discount was increased, the decline was significantly narrower than that of primary aluminum; February coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, and companies had different holiday times. Combined with the differences in pre-holiday stocking efforts of aluminum companies and other reasons, the market bright aluminum wire prices were slightly chaotic, which was also the main reason for the different price declines during the period. It is understood that the current price of bright aluminum wire in East China is around 16% off.
In terms of cans, as of February 27, the price of cans in mainstream areas across the country was concentrated between 16,400-17,100 yuan/ton, which was 300-500 yuan/ton lower than on January 30. The overall supply of the scrap aluminum can market in winter showed a downward trend. Affected by seasonal factors, recycling volume has naturally declined. At the same time, the dual effects of the Spring Festival holiday have been superimposed, and the supply volume in the market has plummeted. According to research, most cargo merchants plan to arrange holidays ranging from 10 to 20 days, and market activity has declined significantly during this period.
In terms of raw aluminum, as of February 27, the price of raw aluminum in mainstream areas across the country was concentrated between 16,800-18,000 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 300-600 yuan/ton from January 30. Before the holiday, holders of goods reduced their shipments due to the withdrawal of funds, and mostly chose to ship after the holiday. However, due to the late resumption of work after the holiday, some cargo companies had to enter the market after the Lantern Festival. The supply of goods circulating in the market was insufficient, and the price performance was strong. It was obvious that prices followed the rise but not the fall after the holiday. In the case of insufficient supply and high transportation costs, recycled aluminum companies did not receive enough goods, and market transactions during the period were greatly affected by the Spring Festival.
3. ADC12 Cost and Profit Analysis
1. ADC12 production cost in East China and South China
According to Fubao Nonferrous Data, as of February 27, 2026, the cost of ADC12 in East China was 21,556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton, or 1.4%, from the cost value on January 30; the cost of ADC12 in South China was 22,556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116 yuan/ton from the cost value on January 30. The cost price difference between the two places widened to 1,000 yuan/ton.
During the Spring Festival holiday in February, the market was priceless and the price increase before the holiday gradually narrowed. The spot price of cast aluminum alloys has weakened simultaneously, especially in the field of raw materials. With the weakening of downstream orders, the purchasing willingness of aluminum companies has dropped sharply. Coupled with the changes in market mentality, there are generally less stockings before the holidays. During the scrap aluminum period, the trend of spot aluminum mostly follows the decline rather than the rise, and there is a sharp fall; from a regional perspective, the cost reduction in South China during the current period is significantly lower than that in East China. The main reason is due to insufficient replenishment of imported supplies. Some local aluminum liquid direct supply companies have a late holiday, and the overall demand is strong.
2. Profit monitoring of China’s recycled aluminum alloy ingots
According to Fubao Nonferrous's calculations, as of February 27, 2026, the average profit value of domestic cast aluminum alloy ingot companies was reported at 728.3 yuan/ton, which was 203.9 yuan/ton narrower than the market profit margin on January 30; judging from the market profit curve in February, the weak spot growth of cast aluminum alloy ingots and the shortage of raw material supply are the core factors leading to the decline in corporate profits.
The profit value of the cast aluminum alloy industry continued to be high in February. As the market resumption of work in the first week after the holiday was less than expected, most aluminum companies resumed work from the eighth to the ninth day of the first lunar month, and most were still in the oven stage. Theoretical market profits have not changed much. In the context of favorable macroeconomic policies and the expansion of raw material demand, it is expected that the profits of cast aluminum alloys may shrink relatively in March, but the overall profit will still exceed the average of previous years. Mainly The reasons are as follows: 1. The basis difference between futures and current prices remains at a large level. The price difference between the price of aluminum companies and the market current and futures prices is large, and the pressure on shipments has increased. As the inventory in the factory continues to accumulate, the possibility of lower prices for shipments in the future cannot be ruled out; 2. A new round of raw material rush period is coming, especially before the holidays. Most aluminum companies do not stock up in large quantities. As a result, the raw material gap in the market will expand rapidly after all downstream operations start in March, and industry profits will be quickly compressed.
4. Market outlook for recycled aluminum alloy ingots in February 2026
The spot price of the cast aluminum alloy industry continued to fluctuate at a high level in February. As aluminum companies gradually resume work and production after the Spring Festival, it is expected that the spot price of cast aluminum alloy will remain high and fluctuate in March. The fluctuation range may be weak in the first half of the month, and it is difficult to rise or fall. It is still possible to continue to rise in the second half of the month. The main reasons are as follows: 1. The resumption of production of aluminum companies is easing after the Spring Festival holiday, but most manufacturers have not yet fully arrived. , it is expected that the market may return to normal before the 15th day of the first lunar month; 2. During the baking period, manufacturers' production and shipment plans are mostly based on actual downstream orders. According to research, traditional die-casting industry-intensive areas such as Yongkang and Dongguan have not yet reached the peak period of resumption of work during the period, and the demand increase is expected to be limited; 3. Domestic policies are still expected to be favorable at the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, which may lead to a linked recovery in cast aluminum alloy prices.
Looking forward to March, the market will fully recover. The increase in orders driven by the traditional peak season and the promotion of macro policies will continue to provide price support. It is expected that the spot price of cast aluminum alloys in March will continue to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the pressure level of 24,000, with the reference range of 22,800-23,800.