In November, the coal and ore market remained in a situation of oversupply of ships and few cargoes. Under the influence of unfavorable factors such as the improvement in consumer terminal demand that was not as good as expected, the freight rate continued to drop. With the gradual release of downstream replenishment demand, the transportation market was at a low freight rate, Under the situation of high oil prices, the supply is biased towards short-haul cargo, and the rainy and snowy weather in the north increases near the end of the month, the turnover efficiency of transportation capacity decreases, and the decline of the coastal bulk cargo composite index narrows. On November 25, the coastal (bulk) comprehensive freight index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange closed at 1115.86 points, a decrease of 6.4% from the same period last month, and the monthly average was 1119.09 points, a decrease of 6.4% from the average value of the previous month.
1. Coal transportation
At the beginning of the month, as the cold air weakened, the temperature in the central and eastern regions began to rise one after another. The pace of winter slowed down. Residents’ electricity load remained at about 70%. The subsequent active warm and humid air flow in the south has caused the temperature rise in southern China to exceed expectations, and the electricity load of residents has increased. At the end of the month, under the long-term confrontation between the cold air in the north and the subtropical high pressure in the south, the climate difference between the north and the south increased, rain and snow occurred frequently, the rhythm of winter in the whole country was delayed, and the overall electricity demand remained stable. The daily power consumption of power plants in the eight coastal provinces remained at 184.7 10,000 tons, the rhythm of replenishment and transportation remains unchanged, and the inventory remains at a high level of 31.513 million tons. In terms of coal prices, the epidemic situation in various northern coal production areas has improved, production capacity has recovered, and shipments are mainly based on long-term cooperation to ensure supply, and the tight supply situation has eased. However, as the cold air is frequently blocked from going south, the bullish sentiment for heating in winter has been completely digested, and the downstream purchase price has been lowered. In terms of freight rate trends, affected by unfavorable factors such as typhoons in the south and high fuel costs, some shipowners had no choice but to drop anchor to reduce operating pressure. At the same time, rainy and snowy weather in the north has increased, the superimposed freight rate has fallen below the operating cost, more ships have been suspended for shelter from the wind, and the number of ships waiting for ships in northern ports has decreased significantly. By the end of the month, the loading and unloading efficiency of northern ports has improved, the duration of closed sailings has decreased, and the turnover rate of ships has improved. The situation of high inventory and low daily consumption of downstream power plants has not changed, the demand for replenishment continues to be weak, and the coal price has fallen. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The overall supply and demand continue to be weak. The price once again entered the downward channel. On November 25, the coal freight index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange closed at 1110.65 points, a decrease of 9.1% from the same period last month, and the monthly average was 1113.54 points, a decrease of 9.4% from the average value of the previous month. On November 30, in the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the market freight rate of the route from Qinhuangdao Port to Zhangjiagang (40,000-50,000 dwt) was 29.9 yuan/ton, down 2.3 yuan from the same period last month / ton, the monthly average is 29.2 yuan / ton, down 8.2 yuan / ton from the average value of last month; the market freight rate of South China route, Qinhuangdao port to Guangzhou (60,000-70,000 dwt) route is 38.7 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last month It fell by 4.7 yuan/ton, and the monthly average was 39.3 yuan/ton, which was 8.4 yuan/ton lower than the average value of last month.
2. Metal ore transportation
Affected by the lower-than-expected improvement of the terminal in the production area, market confidence has declined rapidly, and the peak season of building materials has ended, and demand has further weakened. As the temperature in the north began to cool down, the off-season characteristics of finished product consumption were obvious, and demand was hardly boosted. The output of molten iron declined, and most steel mills maintained low inventory of raw materials. At the end of the month, winter is just around the corner. Although there is a positive impact on steel mills’ winter storage expectations and iron ore prices are strong, under the low profit situation of steel products, the characteristics of the traditional off-season are obvious. Continue to maintain low inventory production, the rhythm of replenishment and transportation has not changed, more ships and less cargo, and the freight rate of coastal metal ores has been lowered again. On November 25, the metal ore cargo freight index closed at 1049.88 points, down 6.6% from the same period last month, and the monthly average was 1055.53 points, down 5.9% from the average value of the previous month.
3. Grain transportation
In November, the national autumn grain harvest was basically completed, and new grains were gradually launched for sale. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the transportation turnover efficiency is still low, the progress of the market is slow, and the supply is tightening. Some companies are superimposed on the sale of old grains. The enthusiasm for procurement has increased, supporting the northern corn Prices go up. At the same time, affected by the release of national reserve meat, the price of pork has rebounded, and the profit of breeding has dropped to a corresponding high level, and the demand for feed is expected to weaken. The price of corn in the north remains high, the price difference between the north and the south is limited, the enthusiasm of traders has weakened, the situation of more ships and less cargo has intensified, and the freight rate in the coastal grain transportation market has begun to decline. On November 25, the grain freight index closed at 1219.02 points, down 6.6% from the same period last month, and the monthly average was 1245.21 points, down 3.9% from the previous month’s average.
4. Crude oil and refined oil transportation
The export volume of refined oil products remains at a high level, and the tight domestic supply situation is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term. Overlapping industrial, mining, infrastructure and other outdoor industries are rushing to meet the construction deadline at the end of the year, and double 11 drives logistics and transportation to be active. Diesel demand is strong, supported by multiple good news Under the circumstances, the NDRC’s upward adjustment window opened as scheduled, and the prices of gasoline and diesel in the main business units have followed suit. Towards the end of the month, the epidemic situation in many places has fluctuated, residents’ willingness to travel has weakened, logistics and transportation industries have been hindered, demand has weakened, supply and demand have stabilized, gasoline and diesel quotations have dropped, the market trading atmosphere has weakened, and the trend of freight rates has slowed down. The freight rate in the refined oil transportation market continued to rise. On November 25, the freight index for refined oil products released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 1634.21 points, up 7.2% from the same period last month; the freight index for crude oil was 1573.84 points, the same as the same period last month.