Source: Sanli Futures
Futures Contract Overview:
Cast aluminum alloy futures will be listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange soon, with the trading code “AD”, the trading unit is 10 tons/lot, the minimum unit of change is 5 yuan/ton, the daily limit in the delivery month is 3% of the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value. Cast aluminum alloy futures adopt three-stage position limit.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange has issued an announcement that cast aluminum alloy futures will be listed and traded from June 10, 2025 (Tuesday), and cast aluminum alloy options will be listed and traded from June 10, 2025 at 21:00 pm.
Delivery points:
The delivery product of the cast aluminum alloy futures contract is ADC12. Cast aluminum alloy futures contracts adopt a brand delivery system and a physical delivery system. Cast aluminum alloys with production dates entering the delivery warehouse within 180 days can be made into standard warehouse receipts, and the validity period is within 360 days from the earliest production date of this batch of products. The delivery unit of a cast aluminum alloy futures contract is 30 tons, and the delivery date is for two consecutive working days after the last trading day. The benchmark price for delivery settlement is the settlement price on the last trading day of the futures contract.
Specific delivery rules:
The delivery product of the cast aluminum alloy futures contract is ADC12. According to the Draft for Comments, the delivery of cast aluminum alloys with chemical compositions shall comply with the provisions of GB/T 8733-2016 383Y.3 or JIS H 2118:2006 AD12.1, and comply with the following provisions:
(1) The lead content is not higher than 0.1%;
(2) The pinhole degree should be in compliance with or better than the second level;
(3) The amount of slag inclusion should meet K value ≤0.2;
(4) The fracture structure of the ingot should be dense and there should be no slag or inclusions;
Researcher: Liu Shuangshuang’s qualification certificate number:F3076112Transaction consultation certificate number:Z0018843
one,Overview of the upstream and downstream of the cast aluminum alloy industry chainintroduction
two,The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy
From the upstream and downstream relationships of the above-mentioned industrial chain, it can be seen that the upstream of cast aluminum alloys are recycled aluminum and primary aluminum. The downstream mainly concentrates on transportation, construction and daily consumption. Let’s talk about the current fundamentals of cast aluminum alloys in terms of supply and demand.
Raw material end: Scrap aluminum is the main source of raw materials, and the current circulation and currency source are relatively tight
The upstream of my country's cast aluminum alloy is composed of recycled aluminum and primary aluminum. According to SMM statistics, about 80% of the scrap aluminum is used to produce cast alloys with low economic added value in 2021, among which the consumption of ADC12 accounts for 71% of the total scrap aluminum consumption. Therefore, the correlation between subsequent recycled aluminum and cast recycled aluminum prices is strong. my country's scrap aluminum recycling rate is already at the forefront of the world, but there is insufficient supply of scrap aluminum. According to data from the International Aluminum Association (IAI), except for the slightly lower recovery rate of cable and aerospace materials in my country, the recycling rate of scrap aluminum in other fields has reached the level of developed countries, among which the recycling rate of cans is close to 100%.
At present, the domestic price of scrap aluminum is strong, and holders are generally reluctant to sell and support the price. The price difference between refined waste exceeds 3,000 yuan/ton (historical range of 2,000-3,500 yuan/ton), which also indirectly reflects the tight supply of scrap aluminum.
Source of data: WIND, Sanli FuturesSupply side: Overcapacity suppresses price
Because recycled aluminum alloys are more in line with the “dual carbon” target policy, they will be the main source of future increase in aluminum alloys. Because of the relatively low barriers in aluminum alloy processing technology, aluminum alloy production enterprises have a high scale and rapid expansion speed. The recycled aluminum alloy industry has overcapacity problems, and the operating rate is only 53%, which suppresses prices.
Data source: Ganglian Data, Sanli Futures
Data source: Ganglian Data, Sanli FuturesDemand side: New energy vehicles become the key to incremental growth
The terminal demand for cast aluminum alloys is mainly concentrated in the transportation industry (63% of automobiles and 10% of motorcycles). From the perspective of material characteristics, aluminum alloys have become the first choice for lightweight automobiles due to their high strength and low density characteristics (the density is only 1/3 of steel). It is worth noting that the amount of aluminum used for single vehicles in new energy vehicles has increased by about 14-40% compared with traditional fuel vehicles. As the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 35%, this field is gradually growing into a core growth point that drives the demand for aluminum alloys.
three,Summary: The price of cast aluminum alloy is lower than the spot price, and it is expected to fluctuate more strongly at the opening.
On the spot side, the fundamentals of cast aluminum alloys are: high production capacity, high supply, medium demand, high inventory, medium and low profits. Under such a fundamental pattern, the subsequent price trend of forged aluminum alloys mainly focuses on the incremental price on the demand side and the support from the policy side. The current spot price is around 19,300, and the subsequent focus is on the listing price of the exchange. If it is higher than the spot price, hedgers can sell hedging to lock in profits under the fundamental pattern of weak short-term demand. If it is lower than the listing price, you can pay attention to the opportunity of the basis convergence.
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(Reprinted from: Sanli Futures)