Shanghai futures price trends:Today, the main monthly 2601 contract of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated and rose. As of the close of 15:00 that day, the main contract of cast aluminum was quoted at 21,115 yuan, up 165 yuan, or 0.79%. The trading volume for the whole day was 4,280, an increase of 774 lots; the open interest increased by 95 lots to 17,664 lots.
According to statistics from the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Network,Yangtze River spot data on December 12 showed that cast aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) were quoted at 23,000-23,500 yuan/ton, with the average price quoted at 23,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; cast aluminum alloy ingots (A380) are quoted at 22,900-23,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 23,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; aluminum alloy ADC12 is quoted at 2,160 yuan 0-21800 yuan/ton, the average price is 21700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the cast aluminum alloy ingot (ZL102) is quoted at 22600-22800 yuan/ton, the average price is 2 2,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the quoted price of cast aluminum alloy ingots (ZLD104) is 22,500-22,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan;
ccmn Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Analysis:
macro level,At 3 a.m. on Thursday (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year. Its policy stance was not as tough as some market participants feared, and the dollar continued its decline. On Thursday night, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor showed that the number of initial jobless claims surged by 44,000 last week, the largest weekly increase in four and a half years. This intensified the market's concerns about an economic slowdown and further pressured the dollar. At the same time, the Federal Reserve announced that it will purchase approximately US$40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting from the 12th to manage market liquidity. Combined with other operations, it is expected to inject approximately US$55 billion into the financial system, which is negative for the US dollar.
Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to increase counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments and continue to implement moderately loose monetary policy. Many international institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, with the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and Asian Development Bank raising their forecasts by 0.4, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points respectively. This highlights the resilience of the Chinese economy, boosts market bull confidence, and is positive for metal prices.
fundamentals,On the cost side, scrap aluminum prices remain high and firm, continuing to provide bottom support for aluminum alloys; on the supply side, refinery production is unstable, and yellow warnings for heavy pollution have been launched in many areas of Chongqing. The production of some recycled aluminum plants is restricted, and the supply margin has been reduced; although the demand side is supported by orders from the terminal automobile consumer market, it has shown weakness recently, and the sustainability of later orders is doubtful. In addition, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 362 tons to 69,000 tons, which put certain pressure on the price of cast aluminum futures. Transactions in the spot market were stable today, while stockholders were reluctant to sell at high prices. The high and sharp price fluctuations made terminals continue to wait and see, and the market trading atmosphere was light.
Taken together,The cost of cast aluminum is firmly supported and the supply and demand pattern is stable. In the short term, prices are expected to continue to be high and strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the price difference between aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum. If the price difference is too large, you can adopt the operation strategy of long aluminum alloy and short Shanghai aluminum, and respond with a bullish approach.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network www.ccmn.cn Tel: 0592-5668838