Shanghai futures price trends:Today, the main monthly 2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated in a high range. As of the close of 15:00 that day, the main contract of cast aluminum was quoted at 21,110 yuan, an increase of 95 yuan, or 0.45%. The trading volume throughout the day was 4,632 lots, an increase of 1,058 lots; the open interest decreased by 214 lots to 17,190 lots.
According to statistics from the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Network,Yangtze River spot data on December 18 showed that cast aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) were quoted at 22,900-23,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 23,100 yuan/ton, which was flat; cast aluminum alloy ingots (A380) were quoted at 22,600-22,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,700 yuan/ton, which was flat; aluminum alloy ADC12 was quoted at 214 00-21,600 yuan/ton, the average price is 21,500 yuan/ton, which is flat; the cast aluminum alloy ingot (ZL102) is quoted at 22,400-22,600 yuan/ton, and the average price is 22,500 yuan/ton, which is flat; the cast aluminum alloy ingot (ZLD104) is quoted at 22,300-22,500 yuan/ton, and the average price is 22,400 yuan/ton, which is flat;
ccmn Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Analysis:
macro levelafter the release of U.S. employment data in November, market sentiment quickly turned optimistic. Although 64,000 new jobs were created, exceeding expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, a new high since September 2021, highlighting the potential weakness in the labor market. Investors believe that this may be a signal for the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts, attracting funds to return to risky assets. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supported further interest rate cuts to return to neutral interest rates, while saying policymakers did not need to act in a hurry. He also said that if inflation continues to slow until 2026, the current monetary policy rate will be 100 basis points higher than the neutral interest rate. In addition, Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, and oil prices rebounded strongly from more than four-year lows, providing support to the metals market, as rising oil prices will push up mining costs, driving up metal prices.
From a fundamental perspectivethe cost-end price of aluminum alloys remains high, while the smelting end is under the pressure of losses, the operating rate is difficult to increase, and the release of supply-end production capacity is limited. On the demand side, the performance has been repeated, adding delivery pressure and suppressing prices. Although the terminal is supported by orders from the automobile consumer market, the spot market transactions are still weak. In the past two days, affected by the sharp decline in primary aluminum, the quotations in the cast aluminum market have declined, and the market's reluctance to sell has increased.
Taken togetherThe supply of scrap aluminum at the raw material end is tight. Whether it is imported scrap aluminum or domestic scrap aluminum, it is difficult to meet the demand. The cost factor forms a strong support for the price of cast aluminum. However, the demand side is still weak, and it is expected that cast aluminum alloy prices will remain range-bound in the short term.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network www.ccmn.cn Tel: 0592-5668838