(Source: Fubao Nonferrous)
Core tips:Aluminum scrap fell steadily this week. The overall mood of stockholders before the holiday is good, and the supply of goods in the market is relatively abundant. It is expected that the price of scrap aluminum will stop falling and stabilize next week. There are two main reasons: First, it is approaching the end of the year, and some aluminum companies that plan to have a holiday in early February will appear one after another next week. The replenishment phenomenon has increased the demand for scrap aluminum and supported prices; secondly, due to issues such as stricter environmental inspections and overlapping transportation in winter, scrap aluminum circulation supplies may tighten next week; overall, it is expected that scrap aluminum will have a high probability of stopping falling and stabilizing in the next period, or may increase.
1. Analysis of domestic recycled aluminum alloy market
1. Market situation of recycled aluminum alloy
During the period, the price of A00 aluminum ingots first declined and then rose, and the center of gravity shifted downward; as of January 22, the spot price of A00 aluminum in Fubao was 23720-23760 yuan/ton, with an average price of 23740 yuan/ton, month-on-month The price of Fubao's spot ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots dropped by 450 yuan/ton in the previous issue; the price of Fubao's spot ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots was 23,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous issue; the current mainstream price of non-deliverable ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in East China The price is between 23,000-23,300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous issue. The mainstream price of ADC12 in South China is between 22,900-23,200 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from the previous issue. / ton; the mainstream price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in southwest China is 23,000-23,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of delivered products ranges from 100-200 yuan/ton.
During the period, the price adjustments of cast aluminum alloy ingots were still frequent, the market price was chaotic, the quotation range was expanded, and there were differences in corporate orders; some cast aluminum alloy manufacturers, mainly traders, were able to destock their products at a reasonable speed, but the actual selling price was seriously lower than the quotation of a leading enterprise in East China; while the recycled aluminum companies that mainly focused on downstream die-casting orders were slow to destock their products. There are two main reasons. One is the drag on the sluggish demand for die-casting, and the other is the slow return of funds. Overall, the pre-holiday cast aluminum alloy spot market shows certain differences in both transaction prices and orders; it is expected to remain high and volatile next week, with the possibility of a slight recovery.
2. Raw material scrap aluminum market situation
In this period, scrap aluminum prices mostly fell, the supply of goods circulating in the market is relatively abundant, and aluminum companies have significantly lowered the price of raw materials; the breakdown of varieties is as follows:
In terms of bright aluminum wire, as of January 22, the price of bright aluminum wire in mainstream areas was concentrated at 19,800-20,400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous period; the operating range of A00 aluminum ingots in this period is 23,660-24,050 yuan/ton, and the price has fallen back from highs. During the period, stockholders have a strong willingness to raise prices, and bright aluminum wire There is an obvious defensive situation, and the discount is slightly increased. Under this situation, the price difference of refined waste in mainstream trading areas across the country has narrowed significantly; the current price difference of refined waste in East China is 2,233 yuan/ton, narrowed by 236 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the price difference of refined waste in South China is 1,886.6 yuan/ton, narrowed by 332.2 yuan/ton compared with the previous period.
In terms of cans, as of January 22, the price of cans in mainstream areas across the country was concentrated between 16,600-17,300 yuan/ton, down 200-300 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of cans was relatively chaotic during the period, especially in the East China market, where most cans are uninvoiced. Some aluminum companies in East China have seriously lowered the prices of uninvoiced supplies due to insufficient re-opening quotas. As a result, cans are no longer resistant to falling prices and have seen significant declines recently. In addition, due to cold weather and external factors such as heavy snowfall and environmental protection in some areas, the overall recycling volume of cans in the market has declined slightly.
In terms of raw aluminum, as of January 22, the price of mechanical aluminum in mainstream areas was concentrated between 16,700 and 18,100 yuan/ton, which was generally down by 200-300 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. Although the price fell during the period, as the end of the year approached, holders took into account the issue of capital withdrawal. The overall shipping sentiment is high, and the supply of goods circulating in the market is relatively abundant; however, there are differences in the attitudes of companies in receiving goods. Some aluminum companies have reduced production and stopped production due to slow destocking of products, re-opening, environmental protection and other reasons, lowering the price of raw materials or suspending collection; some companies have raised prices to receive goods due to insufficient raw material arrivals. There is less than a month left before the Spring Festival. Taking into account the early holiday at the cargo yard, it is expected that starting next week, aluminum companies will gradually stock up before the holiday.
2. ADC12 cost and profit analysis
1. Domestic ADC12 cost ratio
The focus of electrolytic aluminum spot prices in this period has shifted sharply and stabilized in the second half of the week; the stagflation of cast aluminum alloys during the period was more serious, and the spot price fell to around 23,000; part of the reason for the sluggish price performance of cast aluminum alloys in the period came from the weakening of cost-side support. Looking at the breakdown, during the period The cost of scrap aluminum rising slightly by 0.3 percentage points, but the overall proportion has not yet exceeded the 92% mark. The supply of goods in the market continues to be loose, and only some companies in some areas have bucked the trend and raised prices to stock up in advance. In other respects, the price of bright copper was slightly adjusted during the period, and the cost of copper replenishment was slightly lower.
2. ADC12 production cost in East China and South China
According to Fubao Nonferrous Data, as of January 22, 2026, the cost of ADC12 in East China was 21,805.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan/ton compared to the cost value on January 15, 2026; the cost of ADC12 in South China was 22,323 yuan/ton, a decrease of 233 yuan/ton from the cost value on January 15, 2026. The cost price difference between the two places narrowed to around 518 yuan/ton.
The spot prices of the cast aluminum alloy market in this period are chaotic in various regions, and the rising and falling trends in the three major regions are different. Based on the spot price of Fubao, the overall price center of gravity is as follows. In addition, not only the regional differentiation of aluminum alloy ingot prices is obvious, but also the differentiation pattern has once again appeared in East China and South China in terms of raw material prices. Different from the mismatch of supply and demand in previous periods, the current main The core reasons for the price differences between the two places are adjustments to local invoicing policies and production reductions due to heavy pollution. Calculated based on the current regional price difference, leaving aside freight costs, raw materials in South China still have no profit margin for most manufacturers in East China. Therefore, the main companies that transfer goods across provinces are still medium and large-scale leading aluminum companies, and most of the raw materials purchased are imported slices.
3. Profit monitoring of China’s recycled aluminum alloy ingots
According to Fubao Nonferrous statistics, as of January 22, 2026, the latest domestic cast aluminum alloy ingot profit was 748.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 198.6 yuan/ton from the profit value of the previous period; Fubao Information ADC12 spot guidance price was reported at 23,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from the previous price in 2026; the raw aluminum price index was recorded at 18767.5, a decrease of 185 points from the previous price.
The profit margin of the cast aluminum alloy industry has shrunk slightly in this period, but the overall level is still at a high level in recent years. The actual profit margin of aluminum companies is still quite objective. In the short term, affected by external policies and related varieties, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level next week, or rise first and then fall; the main reasons are as follows: 1. Due to heavy pollution weather, aluminum companies in Chongqing, Anhui, Hebei and other places frequently reduce production, especially Class B companies are more severely restricted, and market supply is limited; 2. Many places have implemented reverse invoicing quotas. Due to restrictions, tax burdens have increased in many provinces such as Jiangxi, Anhui and Hubei. The actual voting points of some leading companies have increased by nearly 2 points. Aluminum companies have been forced to increase the selling price of alloy ingots and lower the purchase price of raw materials, resulting in the current market quotation being relatively “inflated”; 3. The supply of raw materials in the market generally continues to be loose. However, aluminum rod and plate companies have recently taken the initiative to narrow the gap between refined and scrap, bucking the trend and raising prices to increase the purchase price of cooked aluminum, which may accelerate the digestion of market supply. In addition, with the end of the year stocking period approaching, scrap aluminum may be tightened again before the holidays.
3. Market outlook for recycled aluminum alloy ingots next week
In the electrolytic aluminum market, from a macro perspective, the market is paying attention to Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, paying attention to his follow-up actions on Greenland, and assessing the possible trade game between Europe and the United States. Risk aversion is still strong, precious metals have risen again, and copper and aluminum continue to rebound. The supply side of fundamentals is operating normally. The arrival of goods in central and eastern China is average. The accumulation of social inventories has slowed down, but it is at a high level year-on-year. The performance of the demand side has improved. There is an urgent need to receive goods downstream, and traders' orders are slow and stable. Large-scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain demand, orders from small and medium-sized plants shrink, and some plans to reduce or suspend production before the holidays. In the short term, aluminum prices may mainly fluctuate sideways. It is expected to rise first and then fall next week, with reference to the range of 23,500-24,200.
In terms of cast aluminum, as of January 22, Fubao Information's ADC12 spot guidance price was quoted at 23,000 yuan/ton, which is 300 yuan/ton lower than last week's price. Looking forward to next week, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy will continue to fluctuate at a high level; the futures price reference fluctuation range is 22,500-23,400 yuan/ton, and the aluminum alloy spot price is referenced at 22,900-23,300 yuan/ton.