Car body manufacturing process
Automobile manufacturing is in the body of the car. It can be said that there have been no major changes in the two areas of contemporary car production from materials to manufacturing processes in the past 100 years: the body material has always been steel: until 1994 Audi launched an all-aluminum body Audi A8 For car models, aluminum alloy began to slowly and gradually participate in the weight of the body.
And the first half of the automobile manufacturing process has always been stamping + Welding (spraying in the second half + The final assembly (assembly) is still in use for a hundred years.
If it is said that the most disruptive technological innovation in automobile manufacturing in a century, it should be regarded as 70 Industrial welding robots of the 1950s replaced manual body welding processes.This is the robot arm like the picture below
Due to the cool appearance of industrial robotic arms and the visual impact of sparks, robotic spot welding has always appeared in media articles about contemporary automobile manufacturing.This kind of diagram uses 50 Years, it is still full of sense of the future.
Punching machines do not have this kind of treatment, because they are all bulky square boxes, as follows:
After the steel plate is sent to the car factory, the molds of different body structure parts or covering parts are inserted between the base and the hydraulic plate, and the steel can be made into various automobile structural parts, seats, doors and covering parts in one click. Wait. After being pressed, it is handed over to hundreds of robotic arms in each production line for welding.
The above-mentioned set of procedures will be completely subverted in the next ten years. Robotic arms will be used in factories to build and transport, rather than welding, so the quantity demand is greatly reduced, and hydraulic presses (punch presses) may even disappear in passenger car manufacturing workshops. Let us take three seconds to thank FANUC, the pioneer of industrial robotic arms,ABB,Kuka. You can finally rest and go to the main topic to talk about aluminum alloy die-casting technology.
Aluminum alloy die casting will become the mainstream in the future, which is an atypical technology development path. It is neither the market demand driving technological progress, nor the further improvement brought about by the improvement of craftsmanship.Aluminum alloy die-casting is an evolution of back to basics and reverse technology, comparing two hundred years of hydraulic technology and 50 Years of machine spot welding technology, casting is 6000 Years ago, the oldest technology of mankind (Bronze Age).
What is driving this change? Electric car.
The popularization of electric vehicles is inseparable from the policy incentives of governments of various countries, because ordinary consumers and existing fuel vehicle manufacturers have no ability, motivation and resources to promote this reform.The popularity of electric vehicles has found a problem: the battery is too expensive, too heavy, and the endurance is too poor. If an electric car is charged, it can only run 100 Kilometers, and finally in the market with 500 A petrol car with a kilometer endurance is not competitive.
There are two ways to increase battery life: weight reduction (vehicle weight and battery weight) and increase battery energy density.Popularized from electric vehicles 10 Over the years, battery energy density has improved by leaps and bounds, and it is time to consider reducing vehicle weight.
We humans are made of steel 100 Year car, why 94 No mass production after Audi switched to aluminum alloy in 2012?The density of aluminum is that of steel 1/3Of course, the structure of aluminum cars is lighter. Whether it is burning oil or using electricity, aluminum cars can save energy. Why is it not popular?Even Audi A8 Subsequent models also incorporate a large number of ultra-high-strength steels to replace part of the aluminum alloy? Because the aluminum processing and welding process is extremely complicated (translation: expensive).
If there is any accident that causes the cover to deform, it will deform greatly. Second, the repair shop usually does not have welding and repair capabilities, which is equivalent to scrapping of large parts (translation: expensive).
How complicated is the processing of aluminum alloy? Noun: hot melt self-tapping riveting, also called flow drill screw (FDS) Self-piercing riveting (SPR) Aluminum spot welding (RSWA) There are about a dozen new welding technologies before and after. These new welding equipment manufacturers are all European, American and Japanese companies, and there is no domestic replacement.
Let’s compare aluminum spot welding and steel spot welding to experience the difficulties of aluminum alloy:
The melting point of the surface oxide during the aluminum welding process is extremely high, which hinders the good bonding between metals;
High thermal conductivity and specific heat capacity: heat input is larger than steel welding at the same welding speed 2-3 Times
The large linear expansion coefficient of aluminum causes thermal cracks;
It is difficult to guarantee the mechanical properties of welded joints, with low tensile strength and low plasticity;
There is no color change when the aluminum alloy turns into a liquid state, which is difficult for the operator;
The cooling water flow of the welding gun is steel welding 2 More than
As the first electric vehicle leader to adopt a variety of aluminum welding technologies, Tesla is one of the manufacturers that most appreciate the difficulty of aluminum welding.
The picture above is an atypical one with multiple locations panel gap(Seam) Tesla. The fundamental reason why Tesla had this embarrassing process problem at one time was the technical difficulty of mass production of all-aluminum body, which has still not been able to overcome. Know the shame and then be brave. As a company with engineering genes and constantly improving manufacturing efficiency, Tesla has set its sights on the oldest craft of mankind: casting.
The die-casting process has the characteristics of reusable molds, fast forming speed, high casting precision, and high casting strength. Because the mold is made of steel, it is only suitable for materials with a melting point lower than steel (such as aluminum). Aluminum alloy die-casting can be said to be lighter than automobiles. Quantification is a match made in heaven.
If you can put 2 Hours of welding 3 Die-casting is completed in minutes,1000 For multiple welding 1 Replaced by sub-die casting,300 Multiple welding robots are replaced by a die-casting machine, which will 300 Streamline multiple parts into one or two, reducing the plant area 30%, Why not do it? Must do. How to do it? Rely on equipment: die-casting machine.
Die casting process
As shown in the figure, the die casting remembers that the way it works is to put the crucible (gan) crucible (guo) After the aluminum alloy solution inside is introduced into the injection mechanism, a hydraulic piston is used to inject the solution into the mold at high speed. After cooling, the mold is opened to take out the finished product.
Subject to specifications, the application range of traditional mainstream die-casting machines has been biased towards small parts, such as motor casings, mobile phone casings, and other consumer metal parts. Due to the popularity of electric vehicles, traditional car companies have begun to use die-casting of some internal complex parts such as transmission system parts such as gearbox housings, and electric car companies have also widely used die-casting parts for motors, reducer housings, and battery pack housings.
As the die-casting machine becomes larger and larger, the clamping force becomes higher and higher, and more parts in industrial production will be able to be produced by the die-casting process.Super large 6000 The success of the research and development of the die-casting machine with a clamping force of one ton comes from the wholly-owned subsidiary of Liking Technology. IDRA.
2017 year 2 One morning in the month,IDRA After waking up, Ricardo Ferrario, the general manager of the company, asked himself: Our company has done a good job, continuously integrating market share, and has achieved considerable success. Our shareholders want to further reduce costs and increase the company’s competition. force. And I want to increase the competitiveness of customers.
How can we improve customer competitiveness while saving costs? Make the tonnage of the die-casting machine larger.
If we can make Giga Press(>6000 Tons of clamping force), our customers can use one machine to assemble four molds at the same time, die-casting four structural parts at a time, or make super large parts. So how big is our die-casting machine? What industry will our die-casting machine be used in, and what are the new applications? Who would be interested in it?
This series of questions excited the entire Yidra team. 2 At the first expert meeting in Ferrari in September, he took a small sand-cast racing toy that Ferrari gave him and walked into the meeting room: Our long-term goal is the same as this small model: one car, one pressure Shot casting.
After forming a strong R&D and manufacturing team, ambitious goals were set:6000 Tons and 8000 Tons of clamping force,50% Energy saving, the shortest injection molding cycle and heat treatment capacity.3 Year R&D Later,IDRA Created the world’s first 6000 Large-scale die-casting machine with ton clamping force and the only one in the world 8000 Tons of clamping force die casting machine.
What is the difficulty of the super large die casting machine? Why can’t the original low-tonnage die-casting machine be made bigger? Because the entire injection mechanism has to be redone. The large and complex mold cavity makes it take longer for the molten metal to fill the furthest corners.
The parts in the entire supply chain, from the fixed template, tie rods, hydraulic manifolds and other components, have to look for suppliers and redesign the hydraulic mechanism.It is difficult to have both injection speed and injection force. After 3 Years of technical research, created 5S Injection and system (will 100 Kilograms of metal solution in 60-100 Fill the entire mold cavity within milliseconds), Idela 6000 Ton die-casting machine has achieved better than the previous generation 4000 Faster molding cycle of ton die casting machine (4000 The cycle time record of tons was also created by Yidra himself before). It has to be said that in the absence of any customer demand and customer orders, the entire automobile manufacturing industry has not yet determined the future process direction to tackle this large-scale mechanical engineering project.IDRA His vision, enthusiasm and persistence deserve admiration.
IDRA 6000 Dimensions of ton die casting machine 20 Meters long 7 Meters wide, plus the surrounding machinery, the entire die-cast island has the size of a basketball court. How is the transportation of such a large machine completed?
When the die-casting machine is finished, it needs to be disassembled 2 Weekly time, wrapped in special materials, the machine needs to be shipped overseas 12 indivual 40 Foot container, each weighing up to 3.5-70 Ton.Land transportation requires at least twenty two A large truck. After arriving at the destination,IDRA The professional team needs to be on site for one month to install the equipment.The entire transportation cost is the price of the die casting machine 10-15%(make an appointment 50 Ten thousand U.S. dollars).
IDRA 6000 The current cumulative order volume of ton die casting machine is 15 Stations, where telecommunications manufacturers do 5G I bought one of the base station housings, and Tesla ordered the others.Because other manufacturers, especially the factories of traditional diesel locomotive companies, simply can’t let go Giga Press Die Casting Machine.
IDRA Yes GigaPress The technology pioneer of super large die-casting machine, and Tesla is the application pioneer in the automobile industry to realize the integrated die-casting path of the car body.At this moment, there is only Tesla in the world Model Y After the model is used, the body is integrally die-casted.according to 2020 year 9 Battery day of the month ppt, Tesla disclosed Model Y Die castings of the rear car body can reduce local costs 40%, The number of local parts is reduced 79 indivual.
The huge economic benefits of aluminum alloy die casting
Body cost:
According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the current welding cost of steel body 7000-7500 Yuan/Cost of welding machine, steel-aluminum mixed welding 1.2-2 Ten thousand yuan/Taiwan, the cost of all-aluminum welded body is about 3 Ten thousand yuan/tower.
according to 2017 The prospectus of Wencan shares in 2009 disclosed that the analysis of the cost composition of large-scale auto parts die-casting parts: total cost 35 Yuan/Kg, of which aluminum material 17.6, Artificial 3.9,manufacture 15.3, After adjusting the aluminum price according to the current price (aluminum price increase 40%), cost forecast 43.8 Yuan/Kilogram.Assuming an all-aluminum car body 200-250 Kilograms, bicycle cost 8768-10960 Yuan/tower. After large-scale applications in the future, manufacturing costs are expected to be further reduced. After comparison, the cost of the all-aluminum die-casting process has been significantly lower than any aluminum-containing manufacturing process.
In addition to the decline in car body costs, the demand for welding robots has dropped sharply, and process management, that is, labor costs can also be reduced.
Battery cost:
According to last year’s Tesla Battery Day ppt Disclosure that Tesla’s structural battery-integrated chassis can reduce vehicle weight 10%, Correspondingly increase 14%, Assuming the car battery capacity is 80kwh, The maintenance of continuous navigation remains unchanged, which can save 11kwh, Assuming every kwh Price of lithium iron phosphate battery 600, You can save 6600 Yuan, assuming the price of ternary lithium battery 700, You can save 7700 Yuan.
Die casting waste material recycling rate is higher than 90%
Traditional stamping + The welding process leads to only the utilization rate of the plate 60-70%, The leftover materials are sold as scrap metal disposal.The waste and leftover materials of the die-casting process can be recycled back to the furnace, and the metal utilization rate is as high as 90% Above, environmental protection! And further reduce the cost of manufacturers. The die-casting process is bound to become the core car-making process.
Estimation of the price and quantity of die casting machine
price
Now there is only strength (IDRA) Totally received 15 indivual 6000 The list of die-casting machines over ton,8000 The ton die-casting machine has not even been delivered yet. The company’s annual report does not disclose the price and quantity of the machine. We can only rely on our own estimation. This is an interesting research process, let me share my estimation process.
First go online to find industrial trading websites to see if there are any prices for machines with similar specifications. It turns out that most of the die-casting machines sold online are small machines with a size of less than a few hundred tons, and the price is around several hundred thousand yuan. I found that a rule is the price of the die-casting machine. There is basically a linear proportional relationship between the clamping force and the body weight.for example 500 Tons of clamping force price 36 Ten thousand yuan, the weight of the machine 20 Tons; for example 160 Tons of clamping force price 10 Ten thousand, self-respect 7 Tons; another example 2000 Tons of clamping force price 600 Ten thousand yuan, the weight of the machine 40 Ton.
IDRA This 6000 Tons of die-casting machine, dead weight 410-430 Tons, yes 2000 Tons of die casting machine 10 Times, I guess the price is 6000 Around ten thousand yuan.Also compare the substitution relationship, one 6000 Tons of die casting machine can be substituted 300 A robotic arm, the price of each robotic arm is about 70,000 U.S. dollars,2100 With a total price of ten thousand US dollars, the die-casting process is about half the cost of welding, which is similar to my common sense. No way, the artillery researcher can only estimate the unit price like this.
Fortunately, the research report of CITIC Securities passed the question “expert” I found the price of this machine 5000 Ten thousand yuan. Basically corroborated my native artillery valuation method.8000 If the price range of the ton die-casting machine uses this anchor point, it should be in 7000 Around ten thousand yuan.Tesla is rumored to be working with IDRA Joint research and development 12000 Ton die casting machine, we can also use this method to estimate an approximate 10.5 The price of 100 million yuan.If the development cycle is 3 Years, then this machine might 2024 Made in years.
quantity
After we have a certain concept of the price, we can estimate the demand for the quantity of the machine.Near-term demand is easy to calculate: Tesla has bought a total of 15 tower 6000 Tons of machines are used in Shanghai, Austin, Texas, and Berlin, Germany.Supported by photos, basically these factories Model Y Annual production capacity 50 Ten thousand units means one die-casting machine for every 100,000 car production capacity.
If the future structure battery also needs one 8000 Ton die-casting machine, one front car body 6000 Tons of die-casting machine, then every 50 The annual output of 10,000 units of the same model will require 15 tower 6000-8000 Tons of die casting machine.
In addition to the car body, if other structural parts of the car body are also die-casted: four doors, tailgate, front and rear seats, here may double the die-casting tonnage, which may be low tonnage (6000 Below) and a mix of ultra-high tonnage machines.In order to simplify the forecast, treat it as another 15 Desk 6000-8000 Tons of machines.
That is, if every 50 A factory with an annual output of 10,000 models can be equipped with 30 tower 6000-8000 An ultra-large die-casting machine with a capacity of 10,000 tons.Hypothesis 10 tower 8000 Tons of matching 20 tower 6000 Tons, the total die casting machine value is 17 Billion yuan.The demand for die-casting machines per million cars produced is 34 Billion yuan.If according to Tesla 2030 Annual output 2000 According to the forecast of 10,000 vehicles, Tesla alone will buy from Lijin. 680 Billion yuan of about 1200 Taiwan die-casting machine.The entire global market assumes that 100 million cars are produced each year, and the installed capacity of die-casting machines in the entire market is 3400 Billion yuan.Lijin Group’s current market share in China has reached 58%, Far away from the second Yizumi (a dozen high%),internationally IDRA It is unique among super large die casting machines.It is conservatively estimated that the group is in 2030 Get half of the market share each year, that is 1700 The installed capacity of RMB 100 million.Equivalent to 2070 Billion Hong Kong dollars.Lijin’s current market value 270 100 million Hong Kong dollars, a ten-fold ten times stock in a proper ten-year period.
Historical financial data
Strength 1979 Founded by Hong Kong businessman Mr. Liu Xiangshang in the year, it has 40 More than years of history. The company mainly produces die-casting machines, injection molding machines and CNC machines.Among them, die casting machine revenue accounted for more than 66%, The injection molding machine is growing steadily, and the CNC machine has passed the growth period.The company’s die-casting machines have been sold all over the world, with more than 33000 A die-casting machine is in operation.China market share reached 58%, Other major markets include India, Brazil, Australia, South Africa, Southeast Asia, Japan, the United States, etc.company 2008 Acquired Italy IDRA Yidra becomes its wholly-owned subsidiary.
Company segment revenue and revenue trends(Unit: HKD million)
The above figure shows that the company’s main income has always been derived from die-casting machines.
The company’s gross profit margin has risen steadily, with the latest approaching 28%.
It can be seen from the above three paths that die-casting machines and injection molding machines contribute all the operating profits, while the CNC machine is a hindrance and consumes the free cash flow generated by the other two products.
The figure above shows the company’s overall free cash flow and ROIC Performance. It can be seen that past companies have shown strong cyclicality, and free cash flow has not shown a significant upward trend.but ROIC There has been a significant improvement beyond the cycle, which is mainly benefited from 1:The overall increase in operating profitability (operating leverage appears) and 2: Improved capital investment efficiency (fixed asset investment efficiency 8 Yearly rise 50%), and the account period and inventory turnover rate increase:8 Yearly promotion 33% with 40%.
Future revenue outlook and valuation
When doing the income model, I used more conservative assumptions than the industry analysis above. The key assumptions are as follows:
Numerical control machine revenue constant year 1 Billion Hong Kong dollars, annual growth in injection molding machine revenue 3%, The annual increase of non-super large general die-casting machine 3%；
Super large die casting machine 8000 Ton model 2022 On sale,2024 Annual volume,12000 Ton model 2024 On sale in the year,2027 Annual volume.Expected period 6000 Tonnage and 8000 Tonnage 2:1；
The total tonnage of the super large die casting machine is in 2030 Year reached 1357 Ten thousand tons of combined force, equivalent to covering the annual output of automobiles 3400 10,000 vehicles (be conservative, if the adoption rate is high in the future, you can increase it in the future);
Gross profit margin: Long-term rise to 30%(This is also a potential point of improvement, because the super-large die-casting machine has no competitors and may be increased in the future);
Capital efficiency: to 2030 In 2015, the efficiency of fixed asset investment was improved by a total of 50%, The turnover rate of accounts receivable has doubled;
Valuation table
next year 3 Fair value at the end of the month 20.05.This stock has risen nearly since the beginning of last year 50 Times. It seems that it has risen to a fair valuation (why didn’t I look at it sooner?), now wait for the opportunity, the long-term prospects are bright.
Write at the end
Finally, I will post a picture that I used to write a column of Fuyao Glass:
Tradition ICE Car manufacturers are experiencing a “Valley of death“. The restrictions of new energy policies in various countries have caused unprecedented challenges for fuel vehicles and related industrial chains.The supply chain rupture of chips is only a short-term catalyst. The long-term trend is bound to be a sharp drop in the production capacity of fuel vehicles, while new energy vehicles are in 2026-2027 This part of the trend supply gap could not be filled years ago.
For Lijin, traditional die-casting customers are all cars OEM Manufacturers that provide die-cast parts for engines and transmission systems.They have already begun to see an inevitable wave of bankruptcy (transition EV It’s impossible to make it all).
The future die casting part will OEM do it yourself. Although the total capacity of die-casting remains unchanged (EV Compared ICE) However, this wave of failures of old technology manufacturers will inevitably affect equipment suppliers such as Lijin. In the next two years, mature die-casting machines are likely to appear.
In the long run, the revenue, profit and cash flow contribution of the super-large die casting machine make the existing business as a whole negligible. This is the fundamental logic.