Shanghai futures price trends:Today, the main monthly 2601 contract of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. As of the close of 15:00 that day, the main contract of cast aluminum was quoted at 20,965 yuan, up 75 yuan, or 0.36%. The trading volume throughout the day was 3,506, a decrease of 651 hands; the open interest increased by 166 hands to 17,569.
According to statistics from the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Network,Yangtze River spot data on December 11 showed that cast aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) were quoted at 23,000-23,400 yuan/ton, with the average price quoted at 23,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; cast aluminum alloy ingots (A380) are quoted at 22,800-23,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; aluminum alloy ADC12 is quoted at 2,150 yuan 0-21,700 yuan/ton, the average price is quoted at 21,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the cast aluminum alloy ingot (ZL102) is quoted at 22,500-22,700 yuan/ton, the average price is quoted 22,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy ingots (ZLD104) are quoted at 22,400-22,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan;
ccmn Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Analysis:
macro levelAlthough the hawkish interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday (December 10) was widely expected by the market, the US$40 billion monthly short-term Treasury bond purchase plan announced by the Federal Reserve was even more unexpected. What really triggered market volatility was Powell's speech at the press conference. Unlike the interest rate cuts in September and October, the dollar sold off after this rate cut. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar index continued its decline, hitting a nearly seven-week low of 98.54 during the session, pushing commodity prices priced in U.S. dollars higher and benefiting metal prices. Today, the price of electrolytic aluminum is on the strong side, and cast aluminum is following the upward trend.
fundamentals,On the cost side, scrap aluminum prices remain high and firm, continuing to provide bottom support for aluminum alloys; on the supply side, refinery production is unstable, and yellow warnings for heavy pollution have been launched in many areas of Chongqing. The production of some recycled aluminum plants is restricted, and the supply margin is reduced; on the demand side, although there is support from orders from the terminal automobile consumer market, it has shown weakness recently, and the sustainability of later orders is doubtful. In addition, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 901 tons to 67,000 tons, which put certain pressure on the price of cast aluminum futures. Today, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is slightly warmer. Holders are reluctant to sell at high prices. High prices continue to suppress consumer sentiment. The immediate demand for receiving goods from the downstream has been maintained, the willingness to enter the market for inquiry has increased, and the overall transaction activity of the market is acceptable.
Taken together,The cost of cast aluminum is firmly supported, the supply and demand pattern is stable, and the short-term is expected to be strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the price difference between aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum. If the price difference is too large, you can adopt the operation strategy of long aluminum alloy and short Shanghai aluminum, and respond with a bullish approach.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network www.ccmn.cn Tel: 0592-5668838